Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
10/21/2007 - San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took only two weeks, but John Cook has become a winner on the Champions Tour.
Cook, an 11-time winner on the PGA Tour, fired a six-under 65 on Sunday to come from behind and win the AT&T Championship. He finished the event at 15- under-par 198 to win the title by two.
Cook tied for 36th place last week in his Champions Tour debut at the Administaff Small Business Classic. He had not won at all since Reno in 2001, but now has made his mark on the elder circuit.
Mark O'Meara, who held at least a piece of the lead after the first two rounds, had a chance at his first Champions Tour win, but could not keep up with Cook. O'Meara, who took second to Bernhard Langer last week, bogeyed the last to shoot a two-under 69 and take second at minus-13.
Fred Funk, last year's winner, posted a four-under 67 and tied for third place with Senior Players Champion Loren Roberts (67) and second-round co-leader Tom Kite (70). The trio finished at 12-under-par 201.
Cook did not get off to a great start on Sunday. He bogeyed the third hole, but more than atoned for the error with back-to-back birdies from the fourth hole.
He birdied the par-three ninth, then two-putted for a birdie at the par-five 10th to get within one of the lead, held at the time by Kite. When Cook drained a nine-foot birdie try at the 11th, his third birdie in a row tied him for first with Kite and O'Meara.
Cook had decent looks at birdie from inside 20 feet at the next three holes, but failed to convert any of them. O'Meara bogeyed 11, birdied 12 and bogeyed 13 to trail by one. Kite bogeyed No. 14 to fall one back, leaving Cook alone in the lead.
Cook reached the par-five 15th green in two and sank a four-footer for birdie. That put him two ahead, but O'Meara holed a similar length birdie putt at the same hole to stay within one.
At the 16th, Cook rolled in a 22-foot birdie putt to once again extend his margin to two. O'Meara stayed strong as he made a 24-footer for birdie to remain one behind.
Cook, in the group ahead of O'Meara, missed an 18-foot birdie putt at the 17th. O'Meara had half that distance for his birdie, but missed.
Cook found a bunker off the tee at the par-three closing hole. He blasted out to seven feet and converted the clutch par save. O'Meara needed a birdie to force a playoff.
The two-time major winner in 1998 missed the putting surface with his tee ball. His second stopped 21 feet from the stick, giving Cook the trophy. O'Meara missed that putt for a bogey to lose by two.
For Cook, he became the second rookie in a row to win on the Champions Tour. Langer titled in Texas last week, but Cook took only two starts to break into the winner's circle.
Lonnie Nielsen shot a three-under 68 and took sixth at minus-nine.
Mark Wiebe (71), Dave Stockton (71) and Mark James shared seventh place at eight-under 205. Wayne Levi (70) and Scott Simpson (72) tied for 10th at minus-seven.
<< Miami's Brown injures knee
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miami Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown suffered
a knee injury during Sunday's game against the New England Patriots.
Brown was hurt trying to make a tackle on an interception in the third quarter
of Miami's 4
<< Roughriders clinch playoff spot with win over Ticats
Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kerry Joseph threw for 261 yards with a
touchdown and ran for two more scores as Saskatchewan clinched a home playoff
berth in the West Division with a convincing 38-11 victory over Hamilton.
Joseph c
<< Johnson holds off Newman in caution-filled Subway 500
Martinsville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmie Johnson survived a record number of
cautions (21) to capture Sunday's Subway 500 at the Martinsville Speedway. The
No.48 Chevrolet crossed the finish line ahead of Ryan Newman after a green-
white-c
<< Cloudy's Knight hangs on to win Canadian International
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cloudy's Knight, making his third straight
start at Woodbine, held off 5-2 favorite Ask to capture Sunday's 70th running
of the $2 million Canadian International. In the supporting $1 million E.P.
Taylor
Second half surge leads Bengals over Jets >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Backup running back Kenny Watson rushed for
130 yards and three touchdowns as the Cincinnati Bengals used a second-half
surge to beat the New York Jets, 38-31.
Carson Palmer completed 14-of-21 passes fo
Blocked field goal returned for a TD sparks Cowboys past Vikes >>
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Patrick Watkins returned a blocked field goal 68
yards for the go-ahead touchdown and the Dallas Cowboys went on to defeat the
Minnesota Vikings, 24-14, at Texas Stadium.
Watkins' return broke a 14-14 stalem
O'Reilly helps U.S. women rally to tie Mexico >>
Albuquerque, NM (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heather OReilly scored in 62nd minute as
the United States rallied to tie Mexico, 1-1, on Saturday in the final match
of a three-game series.
The United States won the first two matches, 5-1 and 4-0.
Griese rallies Bears over Eagles >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Griese engineered an 11-play, 97-
yard drive in the final two minutes to lead the Chicago Bears to a stunning,
come-from-behind win, 19-16, over the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial
Field.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook.com, Online Sportsbook and Casino, is celebrating our 9th football season online since our launch in 1997. MySportsbook.com has experienced exponential growth, having taken over $8 billion in Sports and Casino Wagers since we opened our doors.
This year we will accept over $3 billion in wagers. Tens of thousands of winning wagers are created daily for the 300,000 people that have joined our website. In August of 2005, MySportsbook.com was acquired by Sportingbet, a UK company which is publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange. Combined, MySportsbook.com and Sportingbet easily form the world's largest internet sportsbook company and one of the internet's most profitable companies. The acquisition has provided for added transparency and accountability to MySportsbook.com customers and thus provides more safety and security for our customers. Our business is audited by BDO Stoy Hayward, one of the largest auditing firms in London, and our accounts are published quarterly on the London Exchange. We encourage you to take a look around and truly hope you enjoy your experience.
Through advertising deals with the top handicapping sites in the world, MySportsbook.com reaches a global audience and is one of the most commonly visited gaming spots on the Internet.
MySportsbook.com offers the largest selection of casino games and sporting wagers on the Internet. We believe that an educated player is a more responsible gambler, thus we provide you with all of the latest news and handicapping information. MySportsbook.com is your ultimate destination for gaming information and wagering. You can start by signing up in the Casino or Sportsbook. Once you sign up you can use your same login in either the casino or Sportsbook. So do it now and start winning serious money Today!
If at any time you have a question, we have numerous people waiting to help you, so don't be afraid to call our customer service department. We do not take any telephone wagers but we can certainly answer any questions you may have about our service.
MySportsbook.com is officially licensed in Antigua as a preferred licensee recognized by the Directorate of offshore gaming of Antigua and Barbuda.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts credit cards needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting