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07/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We know this much is true about the Texas Rangers: on paper, they are a better ballclub than they were before Friday.
When the Rangers traded for Seattle Mariners' ace Cliff Lee, they effectively complemented their potent lineup with a bona fide horse, one who last year proved himself to be more than capable of handling a pressure-packed postseason workload.
Lee comes to a Rangers team that already holds a 4 1/2-game lead in the American League West. Rangers fans are still giddy enough about the acquisition to give Lee a mulligan for his Rangers debut Saturday against Baltimore, when he allowed six earned runs in nine innings. In fact, the whole team could use a mulligan after suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Orioles, owners of the worst record in the American League.
"Good time for a break. We need it," manager Ron Washington said. "Sometimes it's not the best team that wins, it's the team that plays the best."
Indeed, there figures to be plenty of days ahead when Texas will play the role of favorite. And with a few weeks remaining until the July 31 trade deadline, it will be interesting to see the trickle-down effect the Lee deal will have on division rivals Oakland and L.A.
Another thing to keep an eye on during the second half of the season is the budding Triple Crown race between the Rangers' Josh Hamilton and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Those two are tied for the Major League lead in batting average (.346) and are tied for second with 22 home runs apiece, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista with 24. Hamilton put himself into the mix with an insane month of June, when he hit .454 with nine home runs and 31 RBI. Cabrera has the edge with a Major League-best 77 RBI, while Hamilton ranks fourth with 64. But if anybody can produce runs in bunches, it's Hamilton, as he proved in 2008 with a league-high 130 RBI and 331 total bases.
The question is, will he be able to pick up right where he left off coming out of the break?
Another storyline worth watching will be Lee's impact on the rest of the rotation. Texas has already gotten healthy contribution from starters C.J. Wilson (7-5, 3.35) and Colby Lewis (8-5, 3.33). Can they continue to pitch effectively under Lee's shadow? According to Fox Sports Southwest, Lee's debut was the most watched television program in the Dallas-Fort Worth area on Saturday, doubling the team's average Nielsen household rating this season.
Even with a new-look rotation, the offense will continue to garner the most attention. Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero are having tremendous rebound seasons. Ian Kinsler is hitting .310 and is on pace to shatter his career-high in walks despite missing the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain.
Then, there is the pending sale of the team which has been an ongoing soap opera in the Fort Worth area. On Monday, team president Nolan Ryan sued his own ballclub for 'derailing' the deal and asked a bankruptcy judge to approve the sale.
While that drama continues to unfold, the Rangers will open the second half armed with a shiny new toy atop the starting rotation, and looking to build on their division lead.
ANGELS SPUTTER INTO ALL-STAR BREAK
While the first-place Rangers were suffering an improbable sweep to close out the season's unofficial first half, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were doing a nosedive of their own. Rather than seize the opportunity to gain some ground, the Angels flatlined, as they've now lost eight of their last 10.
All told, things could be worse. Prior to that 10-game stretch, the Angels were 3 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West. Now, they are 4 1/2 games back, thanks to the Rangers dropping seven of their last 10. For now, chalk it up to good fortune for the Halos. However, another stretch of that magnitude could very well drop them into a hole too deep to climb out.
This marks the first time since 2006 that L.A. is not in first place at the All-Star break. It's no question the team has missed the presence of first baseman Kendry Morales, who was in the midst of a big season before breaking his leg during a walk-off home run celebration in late-May. Manager Mike Scioscia has confirmed the Angels are looking to add another bat, but not to rent a player for the remainder of the season.
"We know that one person is not going to fill Kendry Morales' shoes and what he brings to the team," Scioscia told the team's website. "He's the one hitter in the middle of our lineup that really makes everyone around him better. I think that speaks volume to his talents. That being said, I think that our offensive lineup -- if people can play to their capabilities -- will be deep enough for us to absorb a lot of that and to give ourselves an opportunity to score runs and support what we think is a good pitching staff."
WHAT NOW FOR THE MARINERS?
When the Seattle Mariners dealt Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers on Friday, general manager Jack Zduriencik all but threw in the towel on the 2010 season. Among the most disappointing teams during the first half of the season, the Mariners have to be at or near the top.
When you look back at the expectations following a flurry of offseason moves, to where Seattle (35-53) is now, 15 games back in the division, it's a sobering reality of just how far the team has strayed from its intended path. And now, the ace is gone, and plenty of questions remain.
At the forefront of those questions is, what exactly did the team get in return for its departed ace?
In addition to receiving three prospects from Texas, the key to the deal was 23-year-old first baseman Justin Smoak, who came through the Rangers' minor league system with such high hopes. But he struggled in his first taste of big league action, hitting .209 in 70 games with the Rangers. Initial reports on Friday had a deal in place for Seattle to land Yankees prized catching prospect Jesus Montero, among others. However, that deal ultimately fell through, and Zduriencik acted quickly on Plan B when the Rangers changed their mind on dealing Smoak.
Still, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is preaching patience with the youngster, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his Seattle debut.
"I keep trying to get people to understand, this kid is just starting his career, really," Wakamatsu said. "To be traded and come over with the expectations and all those things, he's got to work some things out. We've seen him, and I've seen him. He's awfully impressive, but we're going to have to be patient with him."
A'S STILL IN THE HUNT
Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane does not have a reputation for making blockbuster deals at the trade deadline to improve his ballclub. Despite the fact that his team is a manageable 7 1/2 games back of the Rangers, who so far have made the biggest splash of the trading season, the rumor mill has been pin drop-quiet regarding any potential deals involving the A's.
Oakland boasts the AL's third-ranked team ERA (3.85) thanks in part to All- Stars Trevor Cahill (9-3, 2.94) and Andrew Bailey (1.70, 18 SV). That said, if Beane were to make a deal before the trade deadline, at the top of his wish list would have to be one word: power.
The A's rank last in the majors with 57 home runs, and that's even with four home runs in a pair of wins over the Angels this weekend. Prior to blasting three homers against the Angels' Scott Kazmir on Saturday night, Oakland had gone 23 straight games without a multi-homer game.
According to manager Bob Geren, we should be seeing more long balls in the second half, regardless of what Beane does or does not do at the trade deadline.
"I'm trying to think who's below their career norm at this point," Geren told the Oakland Tribune. "(Kurt) Suzuki has 10, so he's pretty much on pace. (Kevin Kouzmanoff) will probably hit more in the second half than he did in the first half (8). Same thing with (Mark) Ellis, and you know Jack (Cust) will, too."
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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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